Statistically, Muslimisation (Muslims being 50% of the world population) is an absolute certainty even prior to year 2501 if the present growth rates of Muslims and non-Muslims continue for that period.
Islam religion and hence Muslim population began around 640 AD and now there are 1,300,000,000 Muslims in this world. This is a historical growth rate of 1.51% per year. The world population now is 6,137,000,000 and the current growth rate of the world population is 1.30% per year (Source: PRB 2001 World Population Data Sheet). At these growth rates, mathematically, it will take 410 years for Muslim population to be 50% of the world population.
In fact, current growth rates of many Muslim countries are much greater than 1.51%.
Attached is an excel spreadsheet which lists 47 countries with Muslim majority and their populations and growth rate statistics. The composite growth rate for these 47 countries is 2.00%. Based 2.00% growth rate of Muslim population v/s 1.3% for the world it will take only 125 years for Muslims to be 50 % of the world population!!!! Therefore if these growth rates continue, mathematically it is a certainty that the world will be muslimised between 125 and 410 years.
(Of course if these growth rates continue the world population in 125 years and 410 years will be 30 billion and 1.22 trillion respectively; Muslim population will be 15 billion and 610 billion for the respective periods. We may say that that is not possible but if some one said the same thing for the world population of 6.1 billion people 400 years ago he would have been laughed out of the court, if he was lucky and beheaded if he was not. In any case if there are going to be factors which will mitigate the population to what we guestimate to be a “sustainable” level, there is no reason to believe that those factors will affect Muslim and non-Muslim populations differently to change the growth rates and hence percentages. Therefore, in absence of any other information, the above conclusion should stand the scientific scrutiny.)
Islamization
Islamisation means conversion of a country or a state or a region’s legal system to Islamic (or Quaranic or Sharia) law. Islamisation of the world means 50% of the world population living under Sharia law.
Once a region is muslimised, Muslims demand for a separate country or a region for themselves, e.g. Pakistan and Bangladesh and now a demand for independent Kashmir. Once a country is muslimised, Islamists demand for Islamic or Quranic or Sharia law.
Let us take an example of Pakistan. When it separated from India in 1947 it proclaimed itself a secular state. The Islamists gradually exerted their influence and in 1988 Pakistan became a Sharia law country.
Bangladesh got its independence in 1971 and now it is sliding towards Sharia law. Recent election resulted in a government which needed support of small Islamist parties and within 10 years, I believe, Bangladesh will become a shria law country.
Similar tendencies are in place in other large Islamic countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Nigeria. In all of these countries Islamists are demanding and in my opinion will be successful in making them sharia law countries. The attached statistical sheet shows a few other countries where sharia law is inevitable.
Countries such as Turkey and Egypt are trying hard to keep Islamists at bay but based on Islamist persistence it is doubtful these countries will remain non-sharia for a long time.
In either case, (whether muslimised or Islamised) the Muslim majority decimates the minorities by any and every means. Through physical, social, judicial, financial, legal, extra legal, religious, personal, familial or brute force duress, they either convert or drive out or kill the minorities.
Again let us take the example of Pakistan. In 1947 its population was about 50,000,000 of which minorities constituted about 25% or 12,500,000. If minorities grew at the current world growth rate of 1.3% per year, they should have now numbered 25,000,000. Instead the minority population in Pakistan at present is only 2% or 2,700,000!! In effect, Pakistan converted, drove out or killed 22,300,000 (25,000,000-2,700,000) of non-Muslims in last 55 years. And the world, amnesty international and similar organization does not seem to have any problem with that.
Similarly in Bangladesh non-Muslim population has plummeted from 25% to 10% in the same period and therefore there is elimination of 13,000,000 non-Muslims. Not only that, the same annihilation is going on right now and will not stop until non-Muslims are for all practical purposes wiped out. That means existing 13,000,000 non-Muslims and their progeny will not see the light of the day as non-Muslims. See the table below for historical growth of Muslim population in some countries.
Although these examples are of recent years this by no means is a recent phenomenon. In 14th century Indonesia was largely a Buddhist and Hindu nation. In about 400 years it became a 90% Muslim country. Similar examples abound in other parts of the world.
Once a nation is muslimised or Islamised one can be rest assured the minority population only goes down and therefore the attached list contain many Muslim countries showing more than 90% Muslim population. One can also be rest assured that due to horrendous apostasy and other sharia laws non-Muslims are not going to go there to settle anytime soon. At the same time where Muslims are minority, their population continues to grow at faster rate than the host country. In 1947 India had 10% Muslims; now they constitute 13% of the population. Similar increases are observed in the US and most if not all European countries.
The reason for this inexorable march towards Islamisation is the quaranic order for all Muslims to establish one and only one nation under the rule of Allah on this earth if not the universe. Christianity is also a monotheist religion but Christians have well developed and learned the concept of separation of church and state while that concept is totally foreign to Islam. True, some people say that Islam is a religion of tolerance but those who do not, i.e. the Islamic fundamentalists seem to have much more power and control over the large Muslim population. So-called moderate Muslims either do not have enough power or guts or ability or willingness to oppose the fundamentalists. That may be due to constant threats of punishments or fatwahs from these fundamentalists. Or it may be due to the fact that in their hearts (of moderates) they too believe in one nation under Allah and they either acquiesce fundamentalist activities and/or covertly support them. In any case the moderate voice is totally silenced and the march towards Islam continues to go on.
This process of Islamisation is very methodical, organized, well funded, persistent, deliberate, determined and widely distributed. Please read the article “Creating An Islamic State”. Also no part of the world, including the USA is immune to this Islamisation planning process. Please read the article “How to make America an Islamic Nation” described in the website America and Islam, http://www.geocities.com/WestHollywood/Park/6443/America/
Based on these observations the world between 125 years and 410 years from now will most likely will be islamized by 2501 AD.
What are non-Muslims to do?
In my opinion the recent terrorist activities are nothing but further manifestation or extension of Islamic fundamentalism. There have been extensive discussions and proposed solutions for this menace.
One popular suggestion is to bring vibrant democracy to these nations. But the practice proves otherwise. Pakistan started out with democracy and is now an Islamist state during both the military and democratic rules. Bangladesh, Malaysia, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria, etc. are democratic and are sliding towards sharia law. In fact look at the attached statistics and you will quickly observe that most of the sharia law countries are democracies.
Another notion is that increased living standards in these countries would reduce fundamentalism. Again the reality is starkly different. A recent study shows that most of the terrorists/fundamentalists come from either rich or middle class families, a la Bin Laden. Also Saudi Arabia, a very rich country seems to be awash with fundamentalists.
Yet another notion is that higher education will help stem the tide and yet the reality is otherwise. Most of the terrorists are well educated.
In fact, in recent times greater democracy, abundant wealth and higher education seem to accelerate this inexorable propagation of fundamentalism. Tremendous wealth of Saudi Arabia has very successfully exported its brand of fundamentalism to many parts of the world including some remote ones. Western education and technologies are very successfully used by Islamists to further their goal of world domination in all parts of the world. Thus billions of dollars spent for these so-called remedies to stem the Islamist tide may have exactly opposite effect and may fan the fire of Islamist expansionism.
Is democracy with separation of church and state the solution? Or is it internal reform of Islam, i.e. abandon the idea of one Islamic nation under Allah, respect other religions and live peacefully with other people? Or will it have to be a forcible containment and/or reduction of Islamization? I guess the solution may be combination all of the above alternatives.
Conclusion
This hypothesis is obviously dependent upon a big if, if the present population and Islamisation trends continue. My opinion is that these trends will continues unless they are opposed with new deliberation, dedication and determination. The world better find a solution (s) to this phenomenon. The alternative is unthinkable.
Muslim countries | 2002 mid year population in millions | Natural growth rate % | Annual population growth in millions | Muslim Population % | State Religion | Law | Governance | |
1 | Afghanistan | 21.20 | 2.60 | 0.55 | 99.00% | islam | hopefully non-quaranic | emerging democracy |
2 | Albania | 3.13 | 1.10 | 0.03 | 70.00% | emerging democracy | ||
3 | Algeria | 30.29 | 2.00 | 0.61 | 99.50% | islam | Quranic law | parliamnetary republic |
4 | Azerbaijan | 8.05 | 0.90 | 0.07 | 88.00% | none | Islamic fundamentalism is rising | constitutional republic |
5 | Bahrain | 0.69 | 1.90 | 0.01 | 90.00% | islam | Quranic law | Monarchy |
6 | Bangladesh | 137.44 | 1.90 | 2.61 | 88.30% | islam | tending towards quranic law | democracy |
7 | Brunei | 0.33 | 1.90 | 0.01 | 67.20% | islam | tending towards quranic law | monarchy |
8 | Burkina Faso | 11.54 | 2.50 | 0.29 | 50.00% | secular | democracy | |
9 | Chad | 7.89 | 2.90 | 0.23 | 54.00% | secular favoring islam | democracy | |
10 | Comoros | 0.71 | 3.10 | 0.02 | 99.00% | islam | tending towards quranic law | democracy |
11 | Djibouti | 0.63 | 2.30 | 0.01 | 96.00% | islam | Quranic law | democracy |
12 | Egypt | 63.98 | 2.10 | 1.34 | 94.00% | islam | Islamic fundamentalism is rising | republic |
13 | Gambia | 1.36 | 2.60 | 0.04 | 95.40% | secular | non quaranic | democracy in transition |
14 | Guinea | 8.15 | 2.20 | 0.18 | 86.90% | secular | democracy | |
15 | Indonesia | 210.49 | 1.50 | 3.16 | 92.00% | five religions | tending towards quranic law | democracy |
16 | Iran | 63.66 | 1.30 | 0.83 | 99.20% | islam | Quranic law | theocracy |
17 | Iraq | 23.57 | 2.20 | 0.52 | 97.00% | islam | tending towards quranic law | one party republic |
18 | Jordan | 4.97 | 3.30 | 0.16 | 92.00% | islam | Quranic law | Monarchy |
19 | Kazakhstan | 16.17 | 0.50 | 0.08 | 50.00% | none | favoring islam | republic |
20 | Kuwait | 2.22 | 1.80 | 0.04 | 85.00% | islam | Quranic law | Monarchy |
21 | Kyrgyzstan | 4.90 | 1.27 | 0.06 | 70.00% | none | favoring islam | republic |
22 | Lebanon | 3.50 | 1.40 | 0.05 | 75.00% | 17 religions | favoring islam | republic |
23 | Libya | 5.29 | 2.40 | 0.13 | 97.00% | islam | Quranic law | military dictatorship |
24 | Malaysia | 23.27 | 2.10 | 0.49 | 55.00% | islam | tending towards quranic law | democracy |
25 | Maldives | 0.29 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 100.00% | islam | Quranic law | democracy |
26 | Mali | 11.35 | 2.60 | 0.30 | 90.00% | secular | democracy | |
27 | Mauritania | 2.67 | 2.70 | 0.07 | 99.50% | islam | Quranic law | republic under military rule |
28 | Morocco | 28.71 | 1.80 | 0.52 | 98.70% | islam | Quranic law | Monarchy |
29 | Niger | 10.83 | 3.20 | 0.35 | 98.70% | christians being driven out by islamists | republic emerging from military rule | |
30 | Nigeria | 115.22 | 2.40 | 2.77 | 50.00% | secular | tending towards quranic law | transiting from military to civilian rule |
31 | Oman | 2.40 | 2.90 | 0.07 | 87.70% | islam | Quranic law | Monarchy |
32 | Pakistan | 137.50 | 2.60 | 3.58 | 98.00% | islam | Quranic law | military; |
33 | Palestine | 3.15 | 3.70 | 0.12 | 95.00% | islam | Quranic law | nation to be |
34 | Qatar | 0.58 | 1.80 | 0.01 | 95.00% | islam | Quranic law | Monarchy |
35 | Saudi Arabia | 22.00 | 2.90 | 0.64 | 98.80% | islam | Quranic law | Monarchy |
36 | Senegal | 9.52 | 2.40 | 0.23 | 92.00% | secular | good religious harmony | multiparty democracy |
37 | Sierra Leone | 4.46 | 2.10 | 0.09 | 60.00% | secular | democracy | |
38 | Somalia | 8.78 | 2.93 | 0.26 | 99.00% | islam | Quranic law | anarchy |
39 | Sudan | 31.10 | 2.30 | 0.72 | 73.00% | islam | Quranic law | military; |
40 | Syria | 16.30 | 2.40 | 0.39 | 96.00% | islam | Quranic law | military; |
41 | Tajikistan | 6.17 | 1.40 | 0.09 | 85.00% | Islamic fundamentalism is rising | republic | |
42 | Tunisia | 9.56 | 1.10 | 0.11 | 99.00% | islam | Quranic law | democracy |
43 | Turkey | 65.26 | 1.40 | 0.91 | 99.80% | secular | Islamic fundamentalism is rising | republican parliamentory democracy |
44 | Turkmenistan | 4.74 | 1.40 | 0.07 | 87.00% | mainly islam | off shoot of islamist movement | one party republic |
45 | United Arab Emirates | 2.61 | 0.80 | 0.02 | 96.00% | islam | Quranic law | |
46 | Uzbekistan | 24.75 | 1.60 | 0.40 | 88.00% | islam | Islamic fundamentalism is rising | authoritarian presidential rule |
47 | Yemen | 18.26 | 2.90 | 0.53 | 99.00% | islam | Quranic law | parliamentary republic |
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